Whites Heading Toward Minority Status, But Blacks Aren't Gaining Any Ground

Black population will remain at 12 percent in 2050, say projections.

Last month a widely-covered U.S. Census Bureau report revealed that non-Hispanic whites are projected to be in the minority by 2050, barring an all-out ban on immigration. Fueling most of the trend will be an increase in the Hispanic population, which will rise from 14 percent in 2010 to as much as 31 percent in 2050.

This news spawned a spate of articles about how whites' time in the majority is almost up. What struck me was the news that despite the radically shifting landscape, blacks' share of the population will remain virtually unchanged, at 12 percent. We're treading water while the proportions of Hispanics and Asians in this country are growing. Why on earth would that be?

Before We Get Worked Up, a Reality Check

As I searched for answers, I wondered if the answers could be found in blacks' shorter life expectancy and higher abortion rate compared to other races, fewer two-parent families, or perhaps changes in the way that mixed race people identify themselves on U.S. Census forms. Surely, all of these factors are creating downward pressure on black population growth. After pondering them for a while, it's easy to walk away feeling like an endangered species.

More about those trends in a moment, but first, the good news: we aren't in danger of becoming extinct anytime soon. In fact, our numbers are still growing, with a 2006 black fertility rate (PDF) that was slightly greater than the overall American average of 2,101 births per 1,000 women.

"The African American population will continue to increase," assures Dr. Jehad Yasin, who is a demographer and dean at Fort Valley State University in Georgia, "but the increase will be at a smaller percentage compared to the Hispanic population." Immigration patterns weigh heavily in the population projections, he explains. "Most of the immigrants come from South and Latin America, Europe, Asia, and fewer from Africa....In addition, immigrants from African countries coming to the U.S. are characterized to have a lower fertility level compared to the white population or even the Hispanic population." The Hispanic fertility rate, at 2,960 births per 1,000 women, far outpaces that of any other group in the U.S.

Paying The Cost of Going It Alone

Meanwhile, black people have their hands full in this country with issues that discourage a lot of baby-making. Our higher rate of single-parent households translates into fewer resources for having and raising children, concludes Yasin. "The African American population is growing in numbers but their share of the national population either will remain the same or may even decrease with high divorce rates, low fertility, and single-parent homes," he says.

As for impact of the growing number of people who identify themselves as as mixed race on the black population, they are still a small group and Yasin says they are not normally factored into the projections.

The bottom line for the African-American population is that while we're not poised to take over any time soon, we're not going anywhere either. The landscape may be shifting around us, but our challenge remains the same: closing the gap with other Americans in income, education, health, and security.

More information about the population projections is available via the U.S. Census Bureau. If you have thoughts about the projections, please share them below.

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Sheryl Huggins Salomon is contributing editor of Black Voices, where she writes about politics and society. She is co-editor of the 'Nia Guide for Black Women' series of self-improvement books and the former publisher of Shade magazine. Follow her on Twitter or contact her at BVCEditor@aol.com.