It is being reported that law enforcement officials in Washington, D.C., plan to use a new computer program that claims to be able to predict which citizens are most likely to commit crime. The concept conjures up images of the Tom Cruise film "Minority Report," where agents were able to predict "pre-crime": crime that hasn't happened yet and is set to occur. But far from science fiction, this program is actually based on reality.

The program was developed by Richard Berk, a professor at The University of Pennsylvania. The first version of the program was used to predict future murders among parolees, but it is being argued that the software can be used for all kinds of crime.

"When a person goes on probation or parole they are supervised by an officer. The question that officer has to answer is 'what level of supervision do you provide?'" Berk told ABC News.

The program could have real implications, including determining the amount of a person's bail or how long they are to remain in a halfway house upon their release from prison. The program works by using a large database of crimes and other factors, including geographic location, age, prior offenses and the criminal record of the person being considered.

This is not the only kind of technology used to predict crime. Some departments actually use brain scanners to predict someone's intentions before they act. Apparently, changes in brain chemistry can communicate hostility toward the person being discussed by the possible offender.

All of this seems to represent a very interesting brave new world. I am not sure what to think about the use of computer algorithms to categorize people based on the likelihood of deviant behavior. I can say that judges have, for centuries, used ad hoc measures to determine the length of a sentence and level of bail for inmates. Also, parole boards use their own predictors to decide if a person should be released from prison or not. It seems that computer programs are simply the next step. While I am disturbed by these programs, their presence seems almost inevitable.

One also can't deny the influence of race in these kinds of decisions. While I am sure the program doesn't use race as an explicit variable in its calculations, there are several factors highly correlated with race that could also be used in such a program, such as income, geographic location or education level. I am hopeful that the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) will keep an eye on how such programs are used.

While the use of this program can certainly be criticized, there is also the truth that there are some occasions when one can see prison in the pipeline for a misguided young person. I once told a friend of mine that if she didn't intervene more deeply in to her son's life, he would end up in the penitentiary, since prison beds are kept nice and warm for uneducated black boys who have nothing to do. I knew then that based upon his location in his city, there were far too many ways for him to get in to trouble with his friends. Two years later, he was in jail for his first offense, and he was in prison shortly thereafter.

So, most of us must admit that there are ways to predict who among us might be most at risk. The question is what we choose to do with that information: Do we use it to simply protect the rich from the poor, or do we use it to help that person before it's too late? Perhaps the ACLU, NAACP and other concerned parties should access this information as much as the police.




Dr. Boyce Watkins is the founder of the Your Black World Coalition and a Scholarship in Action Resident of the Institute for Black Public Policy. To have Dr. Boyce commentary delivered to your email, please click here.